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The market continues to be depressed and the transaction atmosphere of PE is difficult (6.19-6.22)

Zhangjiagang Sansu Machine Co.,Ltd | Updated: Jun 30, 2018

This week (6.19-6.22), polyethylene showed a weak downward trend, among which LDPE 2426H price monitored by business community fluctuated at around 9,625 yuan/ton. The average price of HDPE 5000S fluctuates at around 11500 yuan/ton. The average price of LLDPE 7042 fluctuates at around 9,400 yuan/ton. As of June 22, LLDPE, LDPE and HDPE prices were weak at the beginning of the week and fell in mid-week.


On June 24, the LLDPE commodity index was 89.92, unchanged from yesterday, down 23.51 percent from the peak of 117.56 (2013-12-11) in the cycle and up 8.97 percent from the low of 82.52 on November 25, 2015. (note: the period refers to 2011-09-01 till now)


On June 24, the LDPE commodity index was 74.71, unchanged from yesterday, down 34.08% from the peak of 113.33 (2013-12-08) in the cycle and up 5.06% from the low of 71.11 on February 02, 2015. (note: the period refers to 2011-09-01 till now)


On June 24, the HDPE commodity index was 92.97, unchanged from yesterday, down 9.15% from the peak of 102.33 (2014-07-24) in the cycle and up 30.34% from the low of 71.33 on November 25, 2015. (note: the period refers to 2011-09-01 till now)

 Market analysisUpstream: this week the international oil price overall presents the small concussion trend. Trade disputes between China and the United States are continuing, risks are rising and the oil market is under increased downward pressure. The international oil market is expected to be mainly shaken next week, waiting for favorable factors to support. West Texas light oil settled at $65.07 a barrel in July 2018 on the New York mercantile exchange on Tuesday, trading between $64.39 and $65.9 a barrel. Brent crude for August 2018 settled at $75.08 a barrel on the London ice between $74.45 and $75.55. West Texas light oil for August 2018 settled at $68.58 a barrel on the New York mercantile exchange on Friday, trading between $65.71 and $69.38. Brent crude for August 2018 settled at $75.55 a barrel on the London ice between $73.24 and $75.59.Manufacturer's dynamic: the mainstream petrochemical large area inventory total has accumulated, mainly after the Dragon Boat Festival influence, but the downstream digestion ability is still poor. The number of domestic petrochemical equipment maintenance has been reduced, but in the middle and second half of this month, there will be maintenance equipment planned to restart, the market will continue to decline, the mentality of the industry is not good, so the profit will promote the transaction mainly. Inventory digestion is expected to continue to maintain the trend of shock next week.Futures: Friday, June 22, according to the main business clubs monitoring L1809 polyethylene futures contract 9025 opening, the highest 9040, the lowest price, 8895, 8945, closing settled before 9075, the settlement price is 8950, down 130, or 1.43%, volume 293154, holdings of 484948 and 14346 growing storehouse. (quote unit: yuan/ton) this week's futures L1809 early weakness down, market prices follow the main decline, and downstream demand is weak, resulting in poor delivery. Subsequently, the futures continue to shock down, the market trading atmosphere is cold and clear, some merchants continue to sell goods at a profit. The market is expected to be weak and volatile next week.Downstream: the opening rate of the factory is still not high this week, mainly due to the arrival of the agricultural film slack season, except for the demand of some high-end film materials, other types of projects continue to decline. At the same time, due to the impact of domestic environmental policies, the overall start of construction is not high compared with previous years. At present, the market is still dominated by demand, and the downstream continue to wait and see. The situation is expected to remain weak next week.

 Future market forecastLooking afternoon, business clubs, analysts said manufacturer enterprise inventory accumulation, main reason for the post-holiday effect, as well as petrochemical plant overhaul are open, repair device is reduced, so the inventory will increase as a whole. At the same time, the downstream enterprises' opening rate continues to decline, which makes traders deliver poor goods. Weak futures down, market trading sentiment depressed. Next week the market is expected to continue to shock weak mainly, keep a cautious wait-and-see attitude.